NPR: "Republicans Likely Winners In Census County" - Will Be Mis-Analyzed

Republicans Likely Winners In New Census Count

Georgia In Hunt For Extra US House Seat





If the early signals are borne out into political action - the "Democrats who are Black" that see this headline about prospective Republican gains as a result of the increase in the population of Southern states will wage a battle in the state-level redistricting process.  In my view - they will be missing the point of what the real problem is in doing so.

In the state of Georgia population gains in the northern part of the state will result in more US House seats at the expense of at least one seat in the southern part of the state which has not grown as fast.  The Georgia Coalition Of Black Elected Officials plans to stand their ground as much as possible in this process.  There is little correlation between their focus & antics and the conditions within the Black community.  This is more about having "Black (Democratic) faces in high places" than about anything that directly advances the interests of the Black Community.  PERIOD.


The Big Picture View That Will Likely Be Lost

As this entire issue of congressional representation is turned into a "We must defend our Black interests against the onslaught of the White Supremacists using the Republican party as a proxy" few people will think to take a look at the underling forces that are generating this situation where populations are shifting.

In northern states some have lost population.  Others have remained stagnant, this as several key Southern states have seen tremendous growth in the past 10 years.  (I am calling Southwestern states "Southern states" for ease of description).

People migrate to places that have JOB OPPORTUNITIES.  Our ancestors departed the South because the Northern factories were hiring and living in the South was a threat to their physical bodies and their psyche and soul.

Companies make their capital investments in production facilities who's costs of production/taxation and regulatory environment are favorable for their plants that have a 20 year life span.  As unfavorable conditions are placed upon them - they are forced to accept them in the years prior to realizing ROI on their capital investments.  When the planning process is initiated on the question of their long term future - they will choose to build a new plant in a more favorable area instead of choosing to upgrade their existing plant, thus extending its life and the presence of jobs for its workforce.

Any coalition that is not based on organic growth in jobs and the productivity of the people who's talents are put at play is merely making intermediate short term advances that will suffer a long term collapse when the grand reconciliation is made in the future.


It seems to me that those who wage a grand partisan battle under the guise of protecting the "Black interests" seems to put aside the critical question:  "Are the economic/political/regulatory systems that are more favorable to Black people able to actually produce the job opportunities necessary to retain and grow the base of population?"    If not - there is some other motivating force by which these policies are retained in the face of the erosion of the key community interests.  It is this motivating force that must be scrutinized and possibly abandoned for it has FAILED to develop the expected Standard of Living for our communities.  This despite its broad appeal.

Someone must be forced to ask: "What are the missing ingredients to our strategy by which 'on paper' political power has not translated into the expected economic power/ academic benefits/ public safety protections?

Ironically the very same elected leaders who have hoisted the policies that I speak of will also be leading the fight AGAINST redistricting that might have the Democrats losing power.


Also ironically - Of the Black representatives leading the charge are those who reside in "protected districts".  The policy of "Minority Majority" districts being iron clad per the interpretation of Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act insures that their districts are not at risk.

The third point of irony is that the White Democrats are the ones that the Black Democrats fought against as these "Minority Majority" districts were born.   In Georgia the only time that Black Democrats and White Republicans come together is during redistricting.  The Black Democrats have the goal of insuring their reelection by drawing "Black packed" districts that ensure that they will win.  A 65% Black district typically does the trick.  As these powerful geographic information systems are deployed to draw deformed polygons - this leaves more concentrated "White districts" that the White Republicans have an easier time wining.

The White Democrats, also seeking self-preservation seek less racially stratified districts. They win in districts that are more balanced between left and right.

In Georgia specifically - the core Metro-Atlanta districts (represented by John Lewis, Hank Johnson and David Scott) encompass the most concentrated Black areas in the state.

The "Democrats who are Black" have a tough decision to make:  Do they yield their high concentrations of Blacks who are packed into districts to ensure a Democrat and a Black are elected OR do they "take one for the party" and place more of these districts at play by "sharing some of their 'Blacks' " for release into other districts - therefore giving the Republicans some competition?  Let's be honest - in our present political consciousness form most Blacks either 'Vote for the Democrat" or "Do not vote at all".   This is what has been conditioned by the prevailing political discourse within.

With the fact that no member of the Congressional Black Caucus lost their seat in the November 2010 elections DESPITE the eroded conditions in Black America AND the present metro-area migration patterns (as talked about on BET's "Weekly With Ed Gordon" this week) indicate that Black people are exiting these "Black packed districts" for access to a better standard of living in other districts already.

I am on record in my belief that the Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act does little more than create "Majority Minority" districts that tend to favor the election of a more left-wing Democrat into office.  The very districts that are later redrawn to ensnare them back into the district as they move further into the suburbs.  (See Chicago, Atlanta and Philadelphia).

The more logical way forward is to focus up the need to put forth policies that promote:

• Economic growth
• Quality schools
• Retention of home values
• Public safety

Some people have proven that they prefer to have POWER instead of these bullet points.  They see "their" elected leaders as representatives in their own ideological fight.  They need alter their perspective - viewing the political machine and its alliances as the key force that shapes their community.   As it assumes more of the INSTITUTIONS in their community yet fails to deliver upon the expected benefits THIS MACHINE needs to be re-tuned to produce better results.  Today the machine is allowed to grow more powerful, the hope being that as it gains more NATIONALIZED power - the community back at home will finally receive the benefits desired.

That or the rank & file will "Keep Struggling" through the machine, against their ideological adversaries for their "Promised Land" benefits.   Their "Struggle" becoming their primary political motion and ideological unity glue.