In LA The Exodous Of Diane Watson Likely To Put The "Black/Brown Coalition" To A Test

• LA Times: Much has changed for African American politicians in L.A. in the last 35 years. 
• LA Times: Rep. Diane Watson declines to endorse successor 

Elected to seats in the state Senate and U.S. Congress seemingly owned by African Americans, she will depart a district whose biggest population is Latino. Demographics have imposed tough new realities on African American politicians here, and the upcoming change underscored them.

Watson was asked bluntly at her announcement: Is this an African American seat? Her diplomatic answer spoke to the nuances involved.

"It should be a seat inherited by someone who can represent everyone in this district," she said. Later, in an interview, she added: "When I got started it was an issue of black and white. Now it's black, brown, white and Asian, and everyone is looking for their space and fair treatment."

To be sure, Watson's departure from the 33rd Congressional District is not likely to result in the immediate loss of a seat for African Americans. Barring a surprise, the leading candidate for the strongly Democratic seat is Assembly Speaker Karen Bass, who is also African American.

Yet Bass represents a generational, and in some ways cultural, shift from Tom Bradley and Diane Watson's era.

My prediction: We will see IF a Democrat of any stripe is just as good as a "Democrat who is Black".

The strategies adopted by the Black Political Establishment (namely immigration) will have rendered this question - sooner than we think. Look for the seat now held by Rep Maxine Waters to "flip" in the coming years as well. With veterans presently in these seats and a bi-annual competition to retain them - it is only a matter of time before this Democrat on Democrat power struggle that is laced with race comes to the head. Strategically a Latino candidate should use the same tactics that are being used by Mayor Willie Herenton in Memphis - asking rhetorically "Shouldn't OUR PEOPLE be represented by one of us?" - against his fellow Democrat who is not "one of us"?

Fernando Guerra, director of the Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University, studied the top 100 elected political positions in Los Angeles County over four decades. Last year, he found, 33% were held by Latinos, 29% by whites, 15% by African Americans and 4% by Asians.

For African Americans, that represented a drop from their high point of almost 19% in 1992, the last full year Tom Bradley served as mayor. White politicians had dropped by 8 percentage points. Latinos, by contrast, had increased their numbers from less than 19% in 1992.

Over the next decade "you just don't see any growth predicted" for African American positions, Guerra said, because of the declining proportion of African Americans among local voters.

Now, only a dozen African Americans serve California in the Legislature or Congress, compared with almost three dozen Latinos. Until this year, there had rarely been a serious statewide bid by an African American politician since Bradley's last unsuccessful try for governor in 1986. (Democrat Kamala Harris of San Francisco is currently running for attorney general, and Republican Damon Dunn is vying for secretary of state.)

Looking ahead, African American politicians, like all others in this diverse area, are confronting complicated issues. How do you appeal to your base without offending others? Does President Obama's election expand the possibilities or diminish the urgency?

"We're in kind of a transition period," said Raphael Sonenshein, a Cal State Fullerton professor who has written at length about race and politics in Los Angeles. "First you have to have a base in your own community. . . . But you win with a coalition. I think it takes a great deal of sophistication to lead with your community and go outward."